A new poll by Rock the Vote of 1,000 18-29 year olds shows young adults engaged, but more cynical than two years ago. The top issues they want Congress to focus on are jobs and the economy, improving education and lowering its cost, and lowering the deficit and improving health care. Here’s a rundown of some key findings. The margin of error is 3.5%.
More young people are moderates and Democrats
- Political persuasion: 41% are Democrats, 33% are Republicans, and 26% are Independents
- Ideology: 24% identify as liberal, 39% as moderate, 29% as conservative.
The “ideology” stats line up with Neil Howe’s findings that this generation of Millennials are staunchly conventional. Three-fourths are either moderates or conservatives in the above poll.
Many (40%) believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, but there are sharp distinctions by race.
- Only 30% of whites believe we’re headed in the right direction, but 63% of blacks and 51% of Hispanics believe we’re on a good course.
- Those with less education were more likely to say country is headed in wrong direction.
The differences by race line up with the latest findings of the Heartland Monitor Poll, which finds that blacks and Hispanics are much more satisfied with Obama’s performance and are more optimistic about the future. A recent study on happiness finds that black-white gap in happiness is narrowing, because of gains among blacks.
The idealism of the 2008 campaign is wearing thin.
- 37% disapprove of what Obama has done during his first two years in office.
- About 60% say they are more cynical about politics than they were two years ago.
Young adults are still largely optimistic about their own futures.
- 68% of whites, 82% of blacks, and 81% of Hispanics think they will be better off financially than their parents. (There were no sizable differences in this outlook by education, but more Democrats than Republicans or Independents are so assured.)
- About 80% of young adults still believe they have the power to change the country.
The racial differences are quite striking, as is the fact that there are few sizable differences by education, which is usually the case. I don’t know what to make of the findings, other that to wonder whether the white middle class is really pinched and hurting. However, the black and Hispanic middle class should be equally pinched, yet they’re more optimistic toward the future and their potential earnings. Interesting…
I’m also encouraged by their belief in collective power. That they believe as a generation they can change the world is a refreshing shift from the deeply cynical views of their older GenX siblings (who had a point, I might add).
But there’s signs of cracks in that optimism.
- 77% are concerned they won’t find a job that pays enough to be comfortable
- About 80% worry they won’t be able to save enough for a house or for retirement (this worry heightens with age).
- 70% are concerned they won’t find a job they enjoy.
- 42% worry they will have to move back home with their parents. Even 38% of college graduates worry about this. (Higher shares of blacks and Hispanics worry about this.)
Given that about 6 in 10 think they’ll be better off than their parents (above), these numbers are puzzling. Maybe it’s immediate hurt versus long-range hope.
A ranking of their biggest concerns looks like this:
- jobs and economy: 54% rank it first or second on the list of concerns
- quality of education and its costs: 29%
- the high federal deficit: 23%
- health care: 23%
- immigration: 14%
- Afghanistan: 11%
- gays rights/abortion rights: 11%
- environmental concerns/global warming: 10%
For this generation, the most important education policy is improving elementary and high school education (44%). Next on the list is college affordability (38%). (Interesting that a larger share are more concerned with better education at the lower ends than the cost. You’d never guess that from the media stories.)
The most important energy policy is reducing our dependence on foreign oil (45%) followed by investing in new technology jobs (40%). 15% rank climate change as their biggest energy concern.
The most important economic policy is job creation (32%) followed closely by the high national debt (31%). More affordable job training and post-secondary education ranked third (23%), and 14% put cutting taxes at the top of their list for economic policies. (They’ve been listening to their parents complain about the budget and high taxes, I’m betting.)
All in all, some interesting findings that politicians could do well by heeding. This generation is much more committed to the voting booth than their older siblings. And they have good reason to go to the polls: they’re the army grunts of this recession: first killed on the battlefront of layoffs and firings.
