Yesterday over at Psychology Today, where I’m blogging as well, I went out on the limb and predicted voter turnout would be 23% for those under 30. I was close: it was 20% according to a press conference this morning with Rock the Vote, CIRCLE, and the League of Young Voters. Early estimates put voter turnout among all eligible voters at 41.2%.
Rather disappointing coming off the high of the Obama election, where the “youth quake” dominated the news and helped put Obama in office. But then again, mid-term elections never really muster the turnout of the schnazzy presidential elections. That said, young voter turnout (under age 30) was down 6 percentage points from the 2006 midterms.
The folks at the press conference were not yet certain why the turnout was lower, but they did hazard a few well-informed guesses. The first was that the Democratic Party didn’t create messages that targeted young people specifically. As Biko Baker, executive director of the League of Young Voters put it, “If the parties want young voters, they have to get engaged more than four weeks before the election.” Candidates, he says, need to speak directly to young voters. “Had they invested in them, we might have seen a different outcome.”
Heather Smith, president of Rock the Vote, also noted that the campaign rhetoric was a turn-off. “ You don’t’ see a lack of concern among young people about their futures or their issues, such as education, climate changes, and jobs. They are engaged in youth organizations and their own communities. They are seeking leadership. But this electoral season turned them off. They anger and bickering created a conversation that felt quite childish to them.”
But as a reporter from the Washington Post noted, older voters were turned off by the ads as well, but they still went out and voted. Getting inside young voters heads and figuring out what rallies them would do the parties well, I suspect.
Smith, from Rock the Vote, hinted at another possibility for the low turnout: anger doesn’t rally this generation as much as in the past.
“83% of young adults still believe they can make change in this country as a generation,” she said. “They’re optimistic, even while hurting, whereas older voters are really quite angry.” In other words, themes like “hope” may resonate more with this generation than “throw the bums out.”
Here’s some more interesting tidbits:
- 56% of voters under age 30 voted for Democrats in House elections; 40% went with Republicans.
- Turnout was highest in states with the most competitive races; overall “red” states had higher youth turnout.
- 18-24-year-old voters had a 19 point margin in voting favoring Democrats over older voters.
- Young voters (under 30) were 20 points less likely to support the Tea Party.
